October 2008
We seem to be in a holding pattern right now in Pakistan. Not a lot is happening on the political front. Electricity load shedding has decreased drastically bringing some relief to businesses and consumers. Clocks have been resynchronized with the world time zone once again from the end of October. The weather is cooler and Air Conditioners and Fans are no longer being used in Islamabad.
The Property Market is moderately buoyant with lower priced property being bought and sold. New property developments in the main sectors of Islamabad are still selling well. There has been an increase in the number of enquiries for land. It seems that during times of financial crisis, people still recognise that land IS the safest form of investment.
The Global Credit Crisis is in full swing and warnings are being issued daily all over the world about the economic meltdown. Scenes of the depression in the early 1900s are being replayed by many.
DUBAI and the Middle East
I’ve had calls from friends in Dubai who have been working in the real estate sector for the past few years and they are telling me that no-one is buying property in Dubai anymore. One of the larger companies with 30+ agents sold a TOTAL of 4 properties last month compared to 8-10 PER AGENT in previous months!!! Expect many of the real estate companies in Dubai to run away as the market crashes. Anyone who has invested in Dubai property and still hopes to make money from it in the short term is way out of luck.
I get many emails every day from desperate sellers in Dubai who are now willing to dump their property on ANY willing buyer even if that means taking a bit of a loss.
There is also an apparent EXODUS of people from Dubai who feel that Dubai no longer offers the lucrative returns that it did in previous years and this is exacerbated by the various changes to the VISA regulations, labour laws, rent caps etc. that the government has been putting into place.
Many EMAAR buyers are apparently defaulting on their installments, preferring to lose the 5% deposit they have already paid rather than risk paying for a hugely ove rpriced property, just before a crash.
Some of the larger property developers are facing rumours that they are in financial difficulties. Thousands of properties are on the market for resale at very low premiums, zero profit or even at a loss on the purchase price. The authorities in the UAE have been making changes to the visa regulations and real estate laws and many of these are having a detrimental effect on the market there. Abu Dhabi, Ajman and Ras Al Khaimah seem to be facing similar difficulties in their real-estate sector.
UK, Europe and the USA
Property is also taking a hammering in the UK as people are facing major financial difficulties. Credit is now harder to come by and many people have lost 40% or more on their investments in the stock markets and currency markets. A friend of mine recently made an offer for two properties at over £40,000 BELOW the asking price and his offers were IMMEDIATELY accepted.
Friends from the USA are reporting that property is on the market at SILLY MONEY…apparently there’s a rundown house in a bad neighbourhood up for grabs at $50 !!! Entire streets and small towns are sitting empty like ghost towns and the ongoing forest fires and storms aren’t helping matters much.
Iceland has recently had a complete failure of their banking system wiping out their status in the world and have had to take a loan from the IMF. Demonstrations and riots are being reported there and Airlines have stopped accepting debit and credit cards from Icelandic banks.
Currency Markets
The currency markets are reacting violently on a daily basis and HUGE swings are being seen in major world currencies on a daily basis. The UK Pound Sterling has dropped from close to 2 US Dollars per GBP to around 1.5 US Dollars per GBP (almost 25% in a few days !!). The Rupee seems to have dropped as far as it was going to for the short term and has remained largely flat for a couple of weeks at around 82 per USD. The Australian Dollar is at 5 year lows and shows no real signs of recovering.
BACK HOME
Back in Pakistan, the political scene is still far from stable with rumours flying around about the current government being in trouble due to their unpopular policies and actions. The economy is still suffering and the current governments requests for monetary assistance seem to be falling far short of the requirements. President Zardari seems to have exhausted all other options and a loan from the IMF appears to be the last resort. Assistance from the IMF will of course carry many conditions which some feel would be disastrous for Pakistans future. The opposition appears to be sitting back and almost “enjoying” the frustrated efforts of the present government - perhaps waiting for it to fall flat before they can step in to “save the day”.
It is notable that President Zardari’s entourage, on his visit to Saudi Arabia didn’t include Nawaz Sharif, who has a long history and close relations with the Saudi Rulers. Ex President Pervez Musharaf has apparently been predicting the failure of the current government within 2 months and there is much re-organisation happening within the various political parties as old faces change alliances and try to position themselves to scrabble back into power in case of an imminent change.
ISLAMABAD
Life in Islamabad, however, is carrying on as usual give or take the odd bomb scare and increased security. Although business is slow in most industries, residents of Islamabad have adopted the “life goes on” mantra and have slowly returned to their usual way of life.
Phantom of the Opera is the talk of the arts crowd in Islamabad and several other plays and events are on the calendar. Wedding season is just around the corner and visitors are still arriving thick and fast to spend Eid in Pakistan and attend a wedding function or two whilst they are here and perhaps to pick up a bargain property. There is some talk of many trying to cut corners on wedding expenses as inflation continues to bite into personal economies but most hotels are already booked to capacity with wedding functions to cater to.
Let’s see what the end of the year will bring ! Hopefully some relief from the current scenario of endless bad news.
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